A mere two months in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
